Tom was quite close to this supercellular cumulonimbus cloud and was unable to fit it on to his 8.5 by 10.5 inch panel – even with the horizon placed so very low on his panel. As a result he painted the portion of the storm that interested him most.
An Excellent Conceptual Model of the Supercell Thunderstorm |
For a supercell, this happens to be the flanking line with the main updraft to the right side of the image. The underside of the upstream anvil was barely hinted at but to a meteorologist, the large, back-sheared anvil is key to the successful application of Creative Scene Investigation, CSI. An anvil that spreads upstream reveals that the updraft was very strong and associated with significant wind shear. Wind shear is essential to generate a rotating supercell but that is another course in meteorology.
Graphic from my PowerPoint Showing the Portion of the (Dark Outlined Box) Supercell Included in Tom's Weatherscape |
There could be a series of these thunderstorms toward the north suggesting possible organization along a squall line. However it is challenging to be certain from Tom’s painting – I suspect there is only the one supercell but can’t be sure. A lone, rogue supercell is actually more likely to be accompanied by severe conditions. This severity results from the fact that a single cell is able to access all of the heat and moisture energy in the air mass and convert that into motion.
Top Down View of Supercell Thunderstorm Conceptual Model |
The scud (Scattered Cumulus Under Deck) cloud in Tom’s painting is problematic. Remember that scud is formed when rain moistened air is lifted to form cloud at a level below the lifted condensation level for the air mass - the deck. This scud is certainly along the gust front from the rear flank downdraft which moved in after Tom started to paint. Thus the scud cloud appearing in the painting was purely a result of timing. Notice the scud cloud has no uniform base and is formed in the chaotic wind around the supercell and in the heavy rainfall. Tom had no choice but to paint the reality of what he witnessed, leaving it up to us to interpret those observations as best as we can. The scud cloud did hide the details of the flanking line that we know must be there feeding into the updraft.
Notice that there was a considerable amount of wave action on the lake. There is not a clear enough signal to deduce a wind direction from those water surface gravity waves. However from the location of the updraft and knowledge of the wind profile that occurs around supercell thunderstorms, Tom would have been enjoying a warm if not hot and blustery southwesterly wind on his back when he started to paint. This wind would have shifted dramatically to the west and then northwest with the arrival of the afore-mentioned cooler, gust front winds. The gust front would have also brought the turbulent scud cloud.
These intense and dynamic supercells are typical of spring and early summer. They are dominated by strong convective energy and wind shear. Supercells tend to be large beasts and thus Tom was able to stay south of the rain while still recording the weather observation.
In some performance measurements studies I conducted while with Environment Canada, I detected a strong signal that La Niña years of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, were very conducive for supercell convection. The La Niña event that developed in the spring of 1916 and lasted until the spring of 1918 was the 13th strongest of the ‘classic’ La Niña events. It should not be surprising that Tom observed and painted a lot of severe convection during this period when he was at the peak of his artistic expression and tragically, the end of his career.
Singleton Lake Supercell |
The Singleton supercell was almost an identical twin to Tom's supercell. There was even some scud cloud that drifted into my view-finder at just the right moment but it was not nearly large enough to obscure the flanking line of the storm. All of the observations that I made of Tom’s painting, apply equally well to my photograph. This supercell had already knocked down several swaths of very large trees and cut power to the area. Our laneway was blocked by some large trees that had been felled by the damaging, downburst winds. Supercell thunderstorms can be lethal and are best viewed from a distance - preferably on radar or satellite imagery.